At Honors Colloquium, National Academy of Sciences president offers solutions to climate crisis

10/22/08 - Of eight billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere every year, humans need to cut five billion in order to prevent any future climate change, said Ralph Cicerone, the president of the National Academy of Sciences.Of those eight billion tons, 80 percent come from fossil fuel burning, like gasoline from cars, and about 20 percent come ignore from deforestation practices. Trees have valuable carbon dioxide absorption properties, Cicerone said.

In order to prevent consequences like the melting of Greenland ice caps and rising sea levels, humans can increase gas mileage to 60 miles per gallon on 2 billion cars, cut energy usage by about 20 to 25 percent in every building in the world, or build 700 nuclear power plants. According to United Kingdom newspaper the Daily Telegraph, a nuclear power plant would cost about $1.65 billion.

Virtually unrestricted fossil fuel burning has caused carbon dioxide levels to rise from 280 parts-per-million at the time of the industrial revolution, to about 385 ppm today, and levels are rising.

"It's been established clearly that this increase is due to humans burning fossil fuels," Cicerone said. "We know where this CO2 is coming from."

He addressed an argument that the sun is responsible for global warming, which Cicerone said has been monitored by Judith Lean. Lean, Cicerone said, is one of the world's best physicists, and Lean discovered the sun's effect on temperatures is one-tenth as powerful as carbon dioxide.

"That would have been interesting for us geophysicists," Cicerone said. "And it would have let the humans off the hook, but I'm sorry, you can't defend that anymore."

While he said the ocean could absorb about 40 percent of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the other 60 percent remains in the atmosphere, and particles can remain in the air for about 150 years. The CO2 that is absorbed by the ocean is also increasing the acidity of the ocean, thereby threatening aquatic life.

"This is the first kind of data where the whole planet is moving in one direction, and it's been doing this since about thirty years ago," he said.

In a map of warming trends €icerone showed the audience that the most extreme warming is above Alaska and northwestern Canada, and central Siberia, in Russia. Almost everywhere in the world there was some warming, and only scattered spots above Antarctica and parts of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans had cooling.

In addition, Cicerone showed statistics about coal power, which said by 2030, about 75 percent of the world's 2000 gigawatts of coal power will be produced by the United States and China. 2000 Gw is equivalent to the engines of about 3.4 million Ferraris. He also stressed the need for international cooperation and global participation.

"This is going to begin to hint that the world is going to have to work together, and not just point fingers at each other," Cicerone said, referring to the fact that industrialized countries emit most of the carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Energy efficiency, Cicerone said, is the best solution. He said it will decrease dependency on foreign oil through reduced oil consumption, decrease the trade deficit, reduce air pollution, reduce household energy consumption and slow carbon dioxide emissions.

"What's not to like about this policy?" Cicerone asked.

Cicerone concluded with the possibilities of putting sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, which can cause cooling, and also fertilizing the ocean with iron, which enhances its ability to absorb carbon dioxide.

Cicerone also censured government officials, citing Dick Cheney's remarks a few years ago that energy consumption reduction is a "good personal virtue," but it wasn't good politics.

"It's no wonder why our legislators are having a problem when they haven't been supported by the White House," he said.

During a question and answer session, Paul Klinkman, an audience member, said he was an inventor who had a way to repair ice sheets and create cirrus clouds, which reflect sunlight. A diagram he gave to a reporter shows a wind-powered salt-water pump, which freezes ocean water and can stack it in sheets. A second diagram featured a large plastic tube filled with helium that floats in the atmosphere, and pumps water vapor, which would make clouds.

"It's effective," Klinkman said. "It gives an awful lot up very quickly." The devices would probably cost about $1 billion each, but he pointed out that Cicerone said sulfur dioxide would cost about $125 billion a year.

Cicerone said engineers like Klinkman do not get enough support.

"You need angel investors, you need big corporations you need government support," he said. "But from a market perspective, there's no incentive for them.